2026 election forecast
House. Senate. Governors. One model. Deterministic forecasts from the MyCampaign structural model with the D+4.8 generic ballot average (updated Aug 6). Where public polls exist, they are combined with the model by inverse-variance weighting.
D+4.8
R+12 Even D+12
Forecast view · win odds don't change on reload
US House US Senate Governors
Districts
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R incumbent · Scott Perry
Forecast margin D+0.2
Dem win odds 51%
Rating Toss-Up
90% interval R+24.9 to D+25.4
No public polls in the last 60 days — structural model only.
Pennsylvania 10th R incumbent · Scott Perry D+0.2 51% Dem win odds Arizona 6th R incumbent · Juan Ciscomani R+0.4 49% Dem win odds Alaska At-Large R incumbent · Nick Begich D+0.4 51% Dem win odds Pennsylvania 8th R incumbent · Rob Bresnahan D+0.5 51% Dem win odds Nebraska 2nd R incumbent · Don Bacon D+0.5 51% Dem win odds New York 17th R incumbent · Mike Lawler D+0.9 52% Dem win odds Wisconsin 3rd R incumbent · Derrick Van Orden R+0.9 48% Dem win odds Iowa 1st R incumbent · Mariannette Miller-Meeks D+0.9 52% Dem win odds Michigan 7th R incumbent · Tom Barrett R+0.9 48% Dem win odds Arizona 1st R incumbent · David Schweikert R+1.1 47% Dem win odds Pennsylvania 7th R incumbent · Ryan MacKenzie D+1.2 53% Dem win odds Virginia 2nd R incumbent · Jen Kiggans R+1.3 47% Dem win odds California 41st R incumbent · Ken Calvert R+1.4 46% Dem win odds Iowa 3rd R incumbent · Zach Nunn R+1.6 46% Dem win odds Colorado 8th R incumbent · Gabe Evans D+1.7 54% Dem win odds California 13th D incumbent · Adam Gray D+1.7 54% Dem win odds California 45th D incumbent · Derek Tran D+1.9 55% Dem win odds New York 1st R incumbent · Nick LaLota R+2.1 45% Dem win odds Ohio 9th D incumbent · Marcy Kaptur D+2.2 56% Dem win odds Maine 2nd D incumbent · Jared Golden D+2.4 56% Dem win odds New Jersey 7th R incumbent · Thomas Kean Jr. R+2.5 44% Dem win odds Colorado 3rd R incumbent · Jeff Hurd R+2.7 43% Dem win odds New York 19th D incumbent · Josh Riley D+3.1 58% Dem win odds Michigan 10th R incumbent · John James R+3.1 42% Dem win odds North Carolina 1st D incumbent · Don Davis D+3.3 59% Dem win odds California 22nd R incumbent · David Valadao R+3.5 41% Dem win odds Ohio 13th D incumbent · Emilia Sykes D+3.9 60% Dem win odds Texas 34th D incumbent · Vicente Gonzalez D+4.2 61% Dem win odds Virginia 7th D incumbent · Eugene Vindman D+4.2 61% Dem win odds California 27th D incumbent · George Whitesides D+4.2 61% Dem win odds Nevada 3rd D incumbent · Susie Lee D+4.4 61% Dem win odds Oregon 5th D incumbent · Janelle Bynum D+4.5 62% Dem win odds California 47th D incumbent · Dave Min D+4.6 62% Dem win odds Washington 3rd D incumbent · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D+4.9 62% Dem win odds Montana 1st R incumbent · Ryan Zinke R+5.1 37% Dem win odds California 9th D incumbent · Josh Harder D+5.1 63% Dem win odds
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