2026 election forecast
House. Senate. Governors. One model. Deterministic forecasts from the MyCampaign structural model (generic ballot data is stale). Where public polls exist, they are combined with the model by inverse-variance weighting.
D+5.7
R+12 Even D+12
Forecast view · win odds don't change on reload
US House US Senate Governors
Districts
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R incumbent · Juan Ciscomani
Forecast margin R+0.2
Dem win odds 49%
Rating Toss-Up
90% interval R+25.4 to D+24.9
No public polls in the last 60 days — structural model only.
Arizona 6th R incumbent · Juan Ciscomani R+0.2 49% Dem win odds Pennsylvania 10th R incumbent · Scott Perry D+0.4 51% Dem win odds Alaska At-Large R incumbent · Nick Begich D+0.6 51% Dem win odds Pennsylvania 8th R incumbent · Rob Bresnahan D+0.6 52% Dem win odds Nebraska 2nd R incumbent · Don Bacon D+0.7 52% Dem win odds Wisconsin 3rd R incumbent · Derrick Van Orden R+0.7 48% Dem win odds Michigan 7th R incumbent · Tom Barrett R+0.8 48% Dem win odds New York 17th R incumbent · Mike Lawler D+1.0 53% Dem win odds Arizona 1st R incumbent · David Schweikert R+1.0 47% Dem win odds Iowa 1st R incumbent · Mariannette Miller-Meeks D+1.1 53% Dem win odds Virginia 2nd R incumbent · Jen Kiggans R+1.1 47% Dem win odds California 41st R incumbent · Ken Calvert R+1.2 47% Dem win odds Pennsylvania 7th R incumbent · Ryan MacKenzie D+1.4 54% Dem win odds Iowa 3rd R incumbent · Zach Nunn R+1.4 46% Dem win odds Colorado 8th R incumbent · Gabe Evans D+1.8 55% Dem win odds California 13th D incumbent · Adam Gray D+1.8 55% Dem win odds New York 1st R incumbent · Nick LaLota R+2.0 45% Dem win odds California 45th D incumbent · Derek Tran D+2.1 55% Dem win odds Ohio 9th D incumbent · Marcy Kaptur D+2.3 56% Dem win odds New Jersey 7th R incumbent · Thomas Kean Jr. R+2.4 44% Dem win odds Maine 2nd D incumbent · Jared Golden D+2.5 57% Dem win odds Colorado 3rd R incumbent · Jeff Hurd R+2.6 43% Dem win odds Michigan 10th R incumbent · John James R+3.0 42% Dem win odds New York 19th D incumbent · Josh Riley D+3.2 58% Dem win odds California 22nd R incumbent · David Valadao R+3.4 41% Dem win odds North Carolina 1st D incumbent · Don Davis D+3.4 59% Dem win odds Ohio 13th D incumbent · Emilia Sykes D+4.1 60% Dem win odds Texas 34th D incumbent · Vicente Gonzalez D+4.3 61% Dem win odds Virginia 7th D incumbent · Eugene Vindman D+4.4 61% Dem win odds California 27th D incumbent · George Whitesides D+4.4 61% Dem win odds Nevada 3rd D incumbent · Susie Lee D+4.5 62% Dem win odds Oregon 5th D incumbent · Janelle Bynum D+4.6 62% Dem win odds California 47th D incumbent · Dave Min D+4.7 62% Dem win odds Montana 1st R incumbent · Ryan Zinke R+4.9 37% Dem win odds Washington 3rd D incumbent · Marie Gluesenkamp Perez D+5.0 63% Dem win odds California 9th D incumbent · Josh Harder D+5.3 63% Dem win odds
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